Search Engine Optimization

World’s major SEO companies

Google, AOL, Info Space, Yahoo, Askewest, MSN, AltaVista, Lycos, AllTheWeb, Netscape, Looksmart, Go/ InfoSeek, Overture, NBCi/Snap, Kanoodle, IX Quick, Northern Light, Excite, DMOZ, WiseNut, Teoma, Hog Search, MetaCrawler, Dogpile Web Search Eureka, EuroPages, Free Find, Go.com, Mirago, Nerd World, Northern Light, Open Directory Project, OpenText, Planet Search, Scoot, Starting Point, UK Directory, Webtop, Yellow Web

SEO an Overview

The objective of Search Engine Optimization is to increase web visitor counts by ranking very high in the results of searches using the most appropriate keywords describing the content of your site. This relative ranking is often viewed as a struggle to best use a few keywords, instead of a struggle to out-do your competition. If you search on your target keywords, you will see the leading site in the rankings. All you need to do is to be better than that number one site. This page suggests ways to optimize and improve search engine results with ranking and placement advice, placement hints, tips, and clues to improve your search engine keywords relative to existing leaders. After all, better keyword ranking is your real objective.

It is not enough to simply add META tags and do search engine submission of your site to a million search engine indexes and directories. The first placement step in obtaining significant web visitor counts is to seek first-page search engine results. An early step is to build a great content-rich site. One of the last steps is the proper submission of your great site to the search engine or directory. In the middle is a step that is VITAL if you want to obtain front-page results, and most sites skim past this step because it is forgotten or too complex, but without competent Search Engine Optimization you are destined to be search engine fodder.

There are no Search Engine Optimization secrets — just ranking and placement methodologies to follow in order to beat your competition in obtaining a high ranking for desired search keywords. This site targets improving search engine rankings by using a “follow the leader” approach to keyword selection and page wording. Once you know what keywords and search engine marketing services (not spam) worked for the “leaders”, you can “beat the leader” and do even better! Proper Search Engine Optimization requires that you beat your competition, so knowing the keywords and criterion used by your competition is the most important first step. It will become obvious that good ranking excludes keyword spamming the search engine, and that with the careful selection of your keywords that you will fare well for a little effort. Bruceclay.com offers help, hints, and tips for improving search engine results via a specific search engine keywords placement methodology.

Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is the science of search as it relates to marketing on the web. It is mostly technical in nature, combining programming with business, persuasion, sales, and a love for competitive puzzle solving into a written form capable of maintaining desired revenue goals while achieving high rankings in the organic sections of search engine results pages. It is not just technical, nor copywriting, nor links, nor just search engine submission, but an intricate blend of over a hundred variables into the fabric of a website. It is difficult to accomplish without a formal proven methodology and strong proprietary tools. We offer you a tutorial on all of that and more on these pages…

Before you start, you should understand that top 10 rankings with every single major search engine and directory can be obtained, although very few sites can get there and the effort is often beyond reason. Note: URL ranking results change week-to-week due to competition, so maintaining a top ranking requires constant keywords monitoring and information rework. Search Engine Optimization never rests, much like your competition.

The key information on this page includes how to prepare both you and your site for the search engines, choosing the right keywords, how to analyze your competition, what is submission and how is it best accomplished, when to monitor your ranking, instructions for performing an analysis of your site results, complete with tools and aids. This site covers all basic and advanced strategies and the common mistakes to avoid.

The overall SEO involves:

o Attracting prospects to a web site

o that is properly designed to encourage visitors to browse like Web Site Design

o leads the visitor to a completed transaction by offering products easily and without undue complexity like Web Site Navigation

o Addresses concerns (perceived risks) that can scare off the potential buyer if left unanswered like risk avoidance.

The overall SEO involves

o Attracting prospects to a web site

o That is properly designed to encourage visitors to browse like Web Site Design

o Leads the visitor to a completed transaction by offering products easily and without undue complexity like Web Site Navigation

o Addresses concerns (perceived risks) that can scare off the potential buyer if left unanswered like risk avoidance.

SEO Case Study

o Do you have any intent to sell your product yourself?

o Do you have any intent to sell this product through a traditional retail channel?

o Have you decided to sell this product via the Web?

o Determine What You Have To Sell

o Determine Who Already Needs What You Have To Sell

o Determine What They Will Pay For What You Have To Sell

SEO Guidelines –

o Obtain A Domain Name And Site Host

o Search Engine Marketing Through Links

o Search Engine Marketing Through Public Relations

o Search Engine Marketing Through Banners and Print Media

o Search Engine Marketing Through Strategic Relationships And Reciprocal Links

o Search Engine Marketing Through Email Discussion Groups And News Groups

o Search Engine Marketing Through A Bulk Email Program (Careful!)

o Measure Progress And Change Only One Thing At A Time

o Proceed to Search Engine Placement Tactics and Tools Page

Develop A Website Using These Principles:

Before submission you must have prepared your site for search engine placement. If your site is not prepared for top ranking then a submission service can only give you many, many poor rankings.

Consider techniques for counting visitors and have a demographics collection process (newsletter registration or perhaps a Guest Book or equivalent) for capturing visitor name and email information.

1. It must showcase the need that your product addresses (public interest)

2. It must showcase the solution that you are offering.

3. It must provide instant gratification (for information and access to the solution).

4. It must provide appropriate and timely information (in images and words) to allow the visitor to make a decision. Help them to decide that your product meets their needs.

5. Allow the visitor to buy your product (or, if a service, allow them to contact you).

6. Allow for easy information requests if questions arise anytime, day or night. Always respond promptly!

7. Consider techniques for counting visitors and have a demographics collection process (newsletter registration or perhaps a Guest Book or equivalent) for capturing visitor name and email information.

8. Change the site often (at least once per week) to give users a reason to visit again and again.

9. Consider offering a “gift” to visitors (free is best, perhaps a contest) to have them tell their friends to visit your site. Word of mouth is a powerful tool. We have our own “tell-two-friends” referral script on our site.

10. Have the site be “High Class”. Curb appeal is important in determining if you want surfers to stop and visit. Opinions will be formed early about whether the customer wants to do business with you. Plan improvements.(Regardless of what you may think, every site on the Web is under construction all of the time). Make sure that your web site design does not violate any taboos.

11. Design for the masses. Do not use exceptionally advanced technology unless that is your product. The Web is still connected to a lot of slow computers, and many do not operate on the latest Netscape or Internet Explorer products. Keep it simple and still meet your web site design and promotion goals. The toys must be appropriate to the mission of your web site.

12. Write the text and “storyboard” your site much like creating a good product specification. Use a word processor to lay-out all of your pages. Make sure that the flow is simple for the novice Internet user. Try to keep the body content each Web page to one to two 8½ x 11 sheets of paper, or if heavy information, minimize graphics and limit the size to no more than six pages. Focus on making the message clear. Creativity, and how quickly the page loads, is more important than the use of extra artwork for the sake of “cute”. And when this is done, call a Marketing Consultant first, definitely before you call a web page designer. Message and Placement sell on the web.

13. It is important to consider some aspects of eCommerce: web-based commerce with a human touch is very effective in most cases, especially with 60% to 70% of all shopping carts being abandoned. Do not design around human contact if it increases the ability to sell your products. Factor it into your design. While this may be against the Amazon.com hands-off model, some firms like Face Time Communications are integrating AOL Instant Massager with their website eCommerce applications to answer last minute questions. Reports are that buy decisions increase six-fold if questions are answered. Customer Service is evolving, and it is alive and well on the web.

14. Double check the site architectural concepts.

15. There are obviously “things” that a Web architect must know. Much of this is contained in this site and many others linked to this site below. You still need to have a minds-eye image of what is possible before you spend too much money doing it. We recommend that for optimal search engine placement that you start by reviewing this site once, and then on the second pass spend more time on the Web by “surfing” my links and those linked from our links.

16. For all sites that you identify, go to their website and visit their home page. Choose the browser option to view their Home Page HTML source (this might be a complex process). Scan these sites for search engine placement keywords and terms to make sure that your list is as complete.

17. Marketing is everything. It brings potential buyers to your door. But proper design is vital, because without effective design the buyers who see your home page will leave before it finishes loading. The average home page loads in 48 seconds at 28.8, and the average visitor stays at a home page for 35 seconds, obviously many leave before the page finishes loading. We can learn from this.

18. Create/Design the site by taking content and art, mixing it with navigation and style, testing it on family and friends, and always listen to comments, grunts, pregnant pauses, and blank stares. Specific advice on development of a page is at our Quality Site Criteria page and we suggest that you visit it now, before you code your first Web page! Try not to copy a page layout from another site. Use your own words, ideas, and artwork whenever possible, making sure that the message in the image matches your text. Make sure that the visitor knows what you are saying/selling at all times.

19. Carefully consider the use of database tools, visual tools, and java tools. These are areas receiving a lot of interest, and technology work, and they might be right for your site. Carefully consider your options since some could adversely affect search engine placement.

20. Use the smallest graphics that you can to relay your message. It is estimated that 20% of all Web users surf the Web without graphics enabled! But always have graphics if it helps sell your product. Don’t add graphics just to be neat — an animated mail box is really not something to add to a commercial site.

Follow these rules (mandatory for Free Site Listings)

o Make sure the site is rated for Family Viewing (keep it clean).

o Be courteous to other authors at all times — respect their copyrights, trademarks, and intellectual property.

o Make sure the site is NOT a multi-level marketing site, a network marketing site, or a get rich quick site (although some MLM sites can get into the free lists if they are not moderated).

o Make sure the site is NOT graphically overburdened. Minimize the use of CAPITAL letters, large fonts, and extensive graphics, especially animation.

o Make sure the site Home Page loads quickly and informs the visitor what you have to offer them right up front. If using sounds, use MIDI files whenever possible instead or WAV files, and default to off unless sounds are short. Be careful, some browsers crash with sound enabled.

o If you entice visitors with a FREE OFFER or CONTEST, make sure you explain how to obtain the gift or prize in an obvious manner. (FREE is good, but contests usually don’t work and there may be legal problems).

o Always choose to communicate information rather than to display wiz-bang nifty technical skills. These gadgets are a no-no to many free sites even if mandatory for some award sites. Animation, although exciting to see sometimes, is a real distraction on most pages and actually decreases sales. Avoid it unless there is a purpose.

o If you are going to be selling a service or product, take the time to establish a merchant account and accept credit cards. The good news is that this is easily implemented with or without a store. The bad news is that it takes effort to set it up. It is strongly suggested that you visit our page on e-commerce considerations and follow those instructions carefully!

Search Engine Placement through Search Engines, Links, and Awards

Before submission you must have prepared your site for search engine placement. If your site is not prepared for top ranking then a submission service can only give you many, many poor rankings.

There are many Web businesses offering to list your site with search engines or directories for FREE for a few sites, and for a small fee for other sites. The key is that over time, the categories change, the registration format changes, and there is a great difference between being submitted and being registered. At present, there is a 25% mortality rate for search engine sites every few months, and those that survive do so by upgrading categories and registration formats.

Search engine placement requires some homework. Before making this commitment, make a written note with the below information:

1. Your Web address (URL) in the form of http://www.yoursite.com

2. Your email address in the form of yourname@yoursite.com

3. The title of your Home Page in the form of “your site -products for (need}”

4. A 40 character product description

5. A ten to twelve word site description (your site TITLE probably)

6. A twenty-five word site description

7. A forty word site description (keep in your paste buffer). Consider using this text at the top of the displayed area on your home page.

8. A list of sixteen to twenty words best describing criteria that a prospective visitor would use in a search engine to find your site

9. A complete list of keywords (up to 1000 characters) sequenced with the most important first (possibly from your HTML Keywords line)

The Impacts and Effects of Specified Laws and Regulations on a Given Firm

Every country has its own regulations, laws and regulatory bodies or agencies governing the manufacturing, sales, marketing and distribution of products within the country. Laws and regulations are purposely made for human beings and other institutions as a guide to bring order and sanity into the society. Because of this, it is likely that their application will impact upon the plans of firms; their effects on a given firm are also inevitable.

An attempt would be made to discuss specified regulations and laws with particular reference to aviation and airline, environmental regulations, stock market regulations, banking regulations, research (and development) co-operation regulations, stock options regulations, labour regulations, intellectual property and social security regulations industry by industry and effects on the plans of firms where necessary.

For example, the Airport High Density Rule (HDR) in the aviation industry was considered as controversial. This rule requires that no more than 155 flights take off and land at O’Hare Airport and at three other major airports in the country between 6.45am and 9.15p.m.That restriction was expected to keep number of airline operations at O’Hare during that timeframe and also to keep the amount of noise generated by aircraft. When this failed, a law was proposed to abolish the rule.

On the tobacco industry, for example, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), an agency of the US government published a rule on tobacco in the federal register to regulate the sale and distribution of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco to children and adolescents based on the health consequences of tobacco use. The rule specifies that anyone younger than 18years of age should not be sold cigarette and smokeless tobacco. The rule further requires manufacturers, distributors, and retailers to comply with certain conditions regarding the sale, distribution and promotion of tobacco products. Thus, vending machines and self-service displays were banned; billboards within 1,000feet of schools and playgrounds were also prohibited. This might have adversely affected firms who engage in such businesses.

In financial terms, however, the rule is expected to produce significant health-related benefits, ranging between $28 billion to $43 billion each year based on the premise that many adolescents would not start smoking because of the rule; with the FDA estimating that the rule will impose one-time costs of around $187 million.

With firms of all sizes, access to capital is of great importance especially when it comes to start-ups.Laws and regulations may affect the amount of investment available either from foreign or local investors or financial institutions. The most important regulations on capital are usually set by governments. These rules or regulations mainly affect the development of venture capital even though they are meant to guard against defaults. In the UK for example, the introduction of the business angel networks by the government to co-ordinate the flow of SME investment capital is proving successful-a positive effect. Also due to lack of access to pension fund capital in the European Union there is a limited institutional investment. In the case of the United States, most capital venture firms prefer to make investments larger than $3 million, while most entrepreneurs are unable to obtain more than $250 000 from own source and close relations.

The impact of regulations on plans of firms especially those who are technology-based limits the venture capital funding for these firms and affect what they can or intend to do and eventually limiting their capabilities to employ new hands thereby affecting the socio-economic fibre of the society. For example, some government regulations even specifies the type of investors eligible to fund venture capital because of the high risks for certain classes of investors.

In some countries, most firms’ source of financing is through the stock markets. In the UK for example apart from the London Stock Exchange, there is Alternative Investment market( AIM); purposely established to assist SMEs. Quite often, the rules on the registration, listing and IPO in terms of size, age ,profit and management set up are too costly and unnecessarily complicated for small and start-ups. This is known to hamper access to finance for most firms and invariably making it impossible for certain firms to pursue their plans and invariably their growth needs. Ghana Sugar Estate is an epitome of firms which are denied needed funding as a result of controversial restrictions on listing to the Ghana Stock Exchange. The effects of this is seen in the overgrown plantations of the newly formed sugarcane company in the Eastern Region of Ghana, loss of about £2,000 a day in revenue to the company and loss of jobs, and raw materials for most industries which depend on processed sugarcane for their work. The impact on the firms planning process is that funds will not be available to pay and maintain most of its qualified personnel.

With technology-based firms like which need constant innovations, source of financing is key to their planning and so any regulations or laws meant to provide adequate source(s) of finance is welcomed.

The NYSE has come under intense scrutiny to reform as there had been spates of irregularities in the exchange in terms of trading practices. Up till 2001, stocks traded in fractions of eighths and sixteenths i.e. 12.5 cents and 6.25cents respectively enabling a specialist buying a stock to sell to make at least 12.5cents.That has narrowed to a mere penny. This is as a result of decimalisation; a rule set up to change trading from fractions to decimals.Decimalisation reduces spread. The largest specialist firm LaBranche & Co., has been affected with a reduction of its market capitalization being halved to $474million in the past year. The effect of this regulation on LaBranche’s plans could be felt in its budget as funds might not be available. It will also have effect on its investors.

Notwithstanding this, the impact of this decimalization rule is felt on NYSE which in the long term can tear the Exchange apart thereby affecting the very people the rule seeks to eliminate that is the brokers and specialists on the floor. The effect on NYSE’s plan is to start perform its 1.4b shares daily electronically. It is believed that if NYSE does not match its rivals like NASDAQ on automatic trading, investors can take their trades elsewhere and that means a lost of huge annual fees in revenue to NYSE and possibly lost of jobs.

Until recently when it was announced on the TV a proposed credit regulation to improve transparency, the credit or loans market has been shrouded with secrecy that most firms were paying too much interest which affects their operations. Even though to the large firms the unavailability of the transparent credit regulation seem to benefit them i.e. their profit, on the whole it costs the SMEs to the extent that the US government has introduced new types of regulations that requires banks to report their lending to SMEs which are ranked and publicised by the government as a guide for potential lenders. In addition, in the United States, reforms to reduce paperwork, speed up loan approval and reduce costs have led a number of commercial banks to create new departments specialising in the origination and sale of small business advice and other guaranteed loans. At the moment some 60% of SMEs now rely on some form of bank credit.

In Ghana, the government has put in place certain regulations which are believed to be in favour of small firms like First Allied Loans and Savings Bank. This company posted a profit before tax of about $2m, a lot of money for a new bank. The impact on the plans of this firm is the recruitment of the best human resources in the industry culminating in a position to compete favourably with old and big banks in the Ghanaian banking industry.

However ,after deregulation in Britain, competition between banks and stock markets and among banks rose with loan increases to SMEs.Nationwide Building Society was one of such banks to benefit from deregulation. It can now compete favourably with other high street banks. Nationwide is creating more employment as a result of the deregulation law. The impact on the firm is that profit has increased and its members are satisfied and thus growth is imminent.

In a world nowadays with improved, challenging and competitive immense technology innovation and know-how, new businesses spring up in this sector as a result of its dynamism. It is also another sector that has a strong interest in research and development in co-operation. These technology-based firms or enterprises, however, are incapable to engage themselves for in-house research activities. To this end, therefore, there are as well numerous regulations most popularly the antitrust law. Known also as the Sherman Act, this is meant to prevent monopoly. Microsoft was accused of using its position in the software market to maintain its monopoly in operating systems. It was also accused also accused of using its operating system monopoly power to dominate the browser market and that Microsoft bundled its browser into its operating system to try to force Netscape out of the browser market. By antitrust standards, a judge gave an extraordinary ruling describing Microsoft’s dominance of the PC operating system market as “applications barrier to entry” and by that Microsoft held its prices substantially above the competitive level. The effects of this law on the plans of Microsoft is that consumers will now have more choice and so Microsoft will have to come out with more innovations to attract more customers and maintain its position in the industry now that there seem to become a competitive market place where all kinds of innovation can thrive. Regulators now appear more powerful and Microsoft will have to reconsider other related laws when planning. The impact on Microsoft’s plans in the long run will in my opinion be positive bringing about more improvements in the PC operating market.

Another area with regulations of concern is intellectual property laws or intellectual property rights (IPR).The reader’s digest word power dictionary defines intellectual property law or rights (IPR) as ”an intangible property that is the result of creativity, e.g. patents or copyrights.” Just as research findings are commercially traded by the owners or universities, patents and copyrights are also traded. Although, the filing of patents is generally known to be inefficient, slow and costly with the system usually in favour of larger firms, its absence could have brought about chaos in industry. For example a French court ruled against internet search powerhouse Google Inc.in an IPR case for linking a trade marked search terms and ordered Google to stop. The impact on Google is yet to become significant but it is obvious that it immediately sent a message to them to review their plans on their IPO which will in effect affect their business plans leading indirectly to a fall in profit as a result of the effect of the restriction on the search services they provide.

It is widely accepted amongst academics and executives in the business world that, the main assets of most firms is their personnel in other word their human resources. There are a number of employee-related regulations and laws in terms of labour, on recruitment and hiring of workers; social security with regard to retirements, pensions and health benefits; and the newly introduced stock options to compensate employee.

The costs and benefits of such regulations are enormous considering the fact that employee-related issues are somewhat at the fabric of the organisation.In many countries the regulations ranging from fee-charging recruitment services, working hours to social benefits limit the freedom of business executives and entrepreneurs to operate usually in terms of hiring and retaining qualified workers. Some regulations on labour also restrict the recruitment and dismissal of personnel, payment of overtime and use of part-time and temporary workers. Coyne (1998) writes that The European Union Directive on the Organization of Working Time which establishes a maximum 48-hour working week including overtime is considered by smaller firms to be interpreted in an inflexible way thereby restricting their ability to make best use of their labour resources. These really affect the firms because they are unable to recruit the best of personnel they might be looking for which could indirectly affect its operation(plans) as most banks choose to deal with firms with most well- qualified personnel. However, to those on the other end of the spectrum, the limitation on the maximum hour regulation is of great benefit and has had positive impact on the plans of the firm. London United Busways Ltd. for instance has recently recorded its lowest accident rates as a result of the ceiling of EU maximum driving hours a day (and week as well) thereby preventing tired but money-seeking drivers from driving. The company can now rely on the services of recruiting agencies to cover for the extra hours. The long-term benefit to LUB is that it can employ few workers, give them overtime to cover the needed hours and save some costs on pensions and sick pay to workers. The impact on the plans of LUB is that customers’ confidence in the company will increase and enhances its corporate social responsibility stance.

It must be emphasized here that, the introduction of stock options, which are a new and valuable approach to compensate employees, are prohibitive, excessively regulated or heavily taxed in a number of OECD countries.However, as a result of securities rules governing it, the issuance of stock incentives and fiscal rules for their taxation makes it popular with most US small or start-up firms. It is widely used by firms like Yahoo and Google in the early stages to recruit and or keep employees in the company. Even though research into this area is ongoing, it is claimed that they have helped in the high growth of the IT and software sector at the Silicon Valley with particular reference to Google which has managed to keep its best human resources over the years, the impact on the firm is even on the brand image and attributes that it has acquired for itself giving it a competitive advantage over the likes in the IT sector and also generating employment for a lot of new ambitious graduates.

Certainly health insurance market is another area which is of great concern to most governments as a result of sandals and fraud.Recent studies into health insurance regulations have concluded that state regulation of insurance issue, renewal and rating in general either reduces health insurance coverage or, on net, has no impact on coverage. Some of these regulations, however, presume that regulations may change the risk distribution of the insured population, raising coverage among high-risk groups and individuals but lowering coverage among low-risk groups and individuals, with no significant impact on overall coverage. The studies also assumed that insurance markets are competitive, and therefore, that higher price is an inevitable effect of regulation. Smaller insurers with increasing returns to scale may respond differently to regulation than larger insurers with relatively constant returns to scale.

The effects and impacts of laws and regulations on the plans of businesses cannot be overemphasized as the above indicate. Recent insurance scandal in Britain’s oldest insurance company, Equitable, nearly caused its demise.Equitable’s crisis is alleged to have started as a result of loopholes in regulation governing British insurance industry when it emerged that it did not have sufficient funds to honour guaranteed annuity policies to a large group of policyholders. The immediate impact on the Equitable insurance was that a court ruled that it closes all new businesses meaning a fall in services leading to huge debts and also lost of trust and market position to the insurance community and public as a whole which will inevitably force the mutual company to change its business plans and operations.

Throwing more light on this article, a brief look of recent stories and reports might be appropriate.

An Oxfam report in Metro of February 9, 2004 edition, reports that some companies particularly Tesco, Taco Bell and Wal-mart were accused of exploiting workers especially women in the name of lower production costs with unpaid overtime, low wages and unhealthy conditions as a result of lack of regulations.

In the UK, the recent spate of financial scandals leading to loss of pensions for retired workers has prompted the government to put forward a bill in parliament to avoid future loss of pension funds to retired workers.

Another story filed by Georgina Littlejohn in Metro of February, 23, 2004, alleges that UK’s crumbling infrastructure is holding back British businesses. It is claimed that new Government measures announced in July 2004 to help boost transport efficiency in the road and rail sectors have failed to be an effective solution resulting in loss of “man-hours” with 37% saying that lost time has a significant impact on their businesses. This costs the UK firms at least 15 billion pounds each year with each firm losing an average of 27,000 pounds.

This is a pointer to the fact that regulations could also be costly to businesses and firms and can negatively or otherwise affect their business plans in the long run.

Nevertheless, it is important to say here that the empirical results presented here, rest on few observations of laws and regulations and it is suggested that further studies must be conducted to confirm these findings and opinions.

As the interests of business do not always coincide with the broader interests of society, governments might still have to intervene with laws and regulations to achieve goals other than profits.

Trump Wins Trade War As Global Markets Plummet

It is early July, well before this article goes online, yet the landscape is pretty clear from where I stand. The U.S. and China both raised tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods Friday, July 6. This did not deter the S&P 500 from continuing its charge up to the January 26 all-time high. To boot, unemployment is historically low and the Fed is set to raise rates twice before the year ends – all this amidst a stealth discretionary spending recession.

So, how about that trade war? Let’s recap. Most folks would agree that the free trade of goods would be best for all concerned. Goods would be less expensive and those that could not compete on price would do so on quality, leading to a beneficial improvement of goods. All is well and good until protectionism and nationalism rear their ugly heads. Some nations have goods that find it difficult to compete on the basis of price and/or quality. Globally, world leaders of such nations are unapologetic in pursuing their nation’s interests at the expense of others. In trying to avoid the image of the ugly American, we have often placed ourselves at a disadvantage. Nowhere is this more evident than in trade were our trading partners often have a clear advantage.

U.S. Census Data shows that we have a trade deficit with every trading region except for South and Central America and Australia/Oceania. At only $33.14 and $14.38 billion, respectively, the last four years and a combined trade of $310.44 billion this pales in comparison with the deficit for the rest of the world, -$844.66 billion, whose combined trade is $3.578 trillion. Below are 2014-2017 averages for most of the world in billions:

Canada: -$20.01

European Union: -$149.61

Asia: -$547.49

Africa: -$2.60

China is a case in point. Aware of the huge financial benefit that comes with their 1.38 billion consumers, they extract huge concessions from their trading partners, including the U.S. When they have not barred certain U.S. business sectors, they restrict or regulate business, place tariffs on goods, or coerce intellectual property release. Note this goes one way; there is no intellectual property sharing.

These noncompetitive business practices are not fair, but until now, U.S. companies have accepted them without much push back as the cost of doing business there. That is until Trump. What Chinese leaders need to realize is that they are not in a good bargaining position and the longer they hold out the more harm will come to their economy.

Here is why. Leaders of the government-run economy are well aware of their history and realize the huge Chinese population is not going to put up with poor conditions forever. To keep discontent at bay, they have a policy of inflated economic growth. According to Trading Economics, they have averaged 11.7% GDP growth for the past 10 years but chinks in their armor are showing. From the 2010-2011 heyday, where GDP grew 19% and 24%, growth has dropped steadily and sometimes precipitously. It was 5.56% and 1.14% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Little wonder that worried central government figures have made a big push since then for increasing their global exports, including those to the U.S., resulting in a resumption of GDP growth to 9.35% in 2017. The prospect of increased tariffs, which would make their goods less competitive, runs afoul of those plans. China’s economy is struggling and their stock market is testament to that. The smaller Shenzhen composite moved into bear market territory in February and the Shanghai composite closed in bear territory on Tuesday, June 27. The indexes went as low as -26.5% and -25.0 on July 5 but have recently recovered to -22.5 and -21.2%, respectively, as global markets have climbed in tandem with U.S. markets. That is still in bear market territory, which will curtail much need foreign investment. Meanwhile, U.S. GDP is growing steadily, the economy seems to be healthy, and the stock market is nearing new heights. Trump can ratchet up the tariff game longer knowing he has more economic wiggle room. Moreover, he can inflict more pain to the Chinese economy than they can to ours.

To see why, let’s look at the trade numbers. The trade deficit with China has averaged -$358.68 billion the last four years in a rising trend. While U.S. exports have vacillated between $110-129 billion since 2012, Chinese imports have steadily increased from $315 to 375 billion. Last year the deficit was -$375.58 billion, of which $129.89 billion were U.S. exports to China and $505.47 billion were U.S. Chinese imports. Not only is trade unbalanced, so are tariffs. Prior to this year, U.S. tariffs on Chinese agricultural and non-agricultural goods were 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods were 9.7% and 5% for the same. True, these had been going down from a 14.1% average prior to 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization but that was part of the price and tariffs are much higher for some industries.

Below are the top 10 U.S. exports to China in 2017 according to the International Trade Centre Trade Map http://www.intracen.org/marketanalysis:

Aircraft, spacecraft – $16.3 billion

Vehicles – $13.2 billion

Oil Seed – $13 billion

Machinery – $12.9 billion

Electronic equipment – $12.1 billion

Medical, technical equipment – $8.8 billion

Mineral fuels including oil – $8.6 billion

Plastics – $5.7 billion

Woodpulp – $3.4 billion

Wood – $3.2 billion

Total – $97.7 billion

Together they account for 74.8% of all exports that year. Note that except for oil seed, mostly soybeans, the rest are non-agricultural products. But their tariffs are not the same and depend on how strategic the product is. For example, Chinese cars cannot compete with American ones so the latter have duties ranging between 21% and 30%. Compare that to a maximum of 2.5% for Chinese car imports to the U.S.

Therein lies the rub. The Chinese can only raise imports so much more on these goods, some of which have few suppliers outside the U.S. As a result, some of the announced tariff hikes are empty rhetoric with few teeth. Just as an example, China announced 25% tariffs on aircraft, but not all aircraft – just those with an “empty weight” of 15,000 to 45,000 kilograms. While it may seem like China is taking aim at Boeing, it turns out the stipulations only target older 737’s being phased out of production, while not touching the larger models comprising the bulk of Boeing’s trade. China desperately needs to grow their airline industry. It is estimated 7000 new planes will be needed in the next 20 years. With Airbus working at near full capacity, there is no alternative but to turn to Boeing for the remainder.

The same goes for soybeans, the bulk of Chinese agricultural imports. China is the world’s top pork market and they need soybeans for feed. It turns out Brazil and the U.S. are the top two global soybean suppliers. Brazil has been cranking up production for years and now constitutes 57% of Chinese soybean imports. This came mostly at the expense of the U.S., but Brazil does not have the capacity to make up for the remaining 31% in U.S. soybean exports to China. As a result, the planned 25% increase in tariffs will hurt Chinese pork farmers directly.

Ultimately, the sheer size of the trade imbalance will play in Trump’s favor. With $500 billion dollars of goods at risk for China vs. only $130 billion for the U.S., China’s fate is sealed. That is, provided Trump is persistent in raising the bar while keeping disgruntled American businessmen at bay. Historians may recall a similar unrelenting raising of the bar eventually caused Russia to capitulate during Reagan’s tenure. It does not help China that it is already running up against its tariff limit.

We are already seeing that endgame play out. Just four days after both countries raised taxes equilaterally, Trump announced 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. There was no equilateral retaliation China could muster after the late Tuesday, July 10 announcement. Instead, China announced it would hit back in other ways – probably by selling U.S. Treasuries, which would flood the medium- and long-term bond market causing bond prices to fall and yields to rise.

Regarding the latter, Trump’s victory will come at a cost. Bolstered by his success with China, Trump will continue to pursue his trade normalization agenda with other trade partners. Although trade is fairly balanced with the U.K., the European Union had a $173.58 billion trade advantage last year on a $839 billion trade. Not only that, but the E.U. has made it a habit to go after American tech giants it cannot compete with. Think Qualcomm in 2018, Google in 2017, Facebook in 2017, Apple in 2016, and Microsoft in 2013. Japan is on the same boat. Our deficit with Japan averaged -$68.59 billion from 2014-2017 and stood last year at -$68.88 billion on a $204 billion trade. Although government regulations have eased under Prime Minister Abe, Japan has a culture of impeding foreign investment, particularly in the financial sector. Moreover, they have high tariffs on dairy (up to 40%) and meat (38.5% on beef) products, which account for $6.1 billion of U.S. exports to the country. Trump has made it clear they are also in play and they have fired salvos in return.

Given the posturing by all parties involved, tariffs will be higher going forward than they were before. This will raise the price of U.S. goods abroad, making them less competitive. This will, in turn, impact earnings for our larger, international firms. Our stock market may be flirting with highs right now, but I believe this will be the catalyst to the market downturn as Investors, looking ahead, bid down these stocks. Moreover, tariffs on imports will inevitably lead to inflation. We are already at the Fed’s 2% comfort level so any visibility on higher inflation will incite the Fed to head it off by hiking fed funds rates beyond their current path. Their incentive to do so will be bolstered if China retaliates with a Treasury selling program, as higher 10-year Treasury rates relieve the Fed of yield curve inversion worries.

A stock market downturn will reverse the wealth effect we have been seeing recently on our economy and combined with export losses, this undoubtedly will lead to job losses and higher unemployment. On top of all that, the stealth discretionary recession we have been experiencing, will make itself clearly evident as U.S. peak spender populations continue to decline all the way until 2023. This is not an incident unique to the U.S. World population growth increased from 1946 to 1968, peaking at 2.09% per year that year, coinciding with the bulk of our Baby Boomer bulge. Since then it has been steadily decreasing until it reached 1.09% at the beginning of this year. Peak spenders are those 46-50 years old and if we take 1968 as the mid-point of their population zenith, they topped out in 2016. That is a main reason populous nations, like China, have been concerned with slowing consumerism the past couple of years. The upshot is we will see a global drop in discretionary spending for at least the next five years. This will result in an accelerated global economic downturn for the next five years and plummeting global stock markets for the next few years.

Exit mobile version